500 ucla
300 usc
150 Stanford
50 Fordham, cause you know, why not?
Steve Kerr: âTalent wins at all levels of basketball.â
âHe won when he had the talent.â Dante Dettamanti speaking about Pete Cutino, a coach he respected. Dettamanti would have said the same thing about himself.
âIf youâre gonna talk the talk, you gotta walk the walk.â Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson speaking to his players after Dallas beat San Francsico in the 1993 NFC championship game. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiV_cngtf2JAxWbLzQIHVtSLfgQtwJ6BAgvEAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DFRtKGcKHJww&usg=AOvVaw3D_-q4jwHxzNfQz9CYffrk&opi=89978449
Here are my predictions, often wrong, for the NCAA Tournament.
First round
UCLA over Salem easily
USC over Cal Baptist by 4 or more
Fordham over LBSU by 1
Stanford over Princeton by 1 or 2
Semifinals
USC over Fordham by 2 or 3
UCLA over Stanford by 2 or more
Finals
UCLA over USC by 2
Team Breakdown:
Salem (No. 8 seed). With all due respect to Salem, they are hopelessly outclassed by UCLA.
Cal Baptist (No. 7 seed). Cal Baptist beat a pretty good Pacific team to win the West Coast Conference. USC shouldnât take them lightly. Although Cal Baptist may keep it close for the first quarter, USC should win handily.
LBSU (No. 6 seed). LBSU has been inconsistent this year but they finished the season strongly and have a talented team. LBSU has two good centers (Spanish freshman Gabi Acosta and freshman Stanley Corbin), good attackers, and two good goalies (Aaron Wilson and Liam Ward). I assume Wilson will start against Fordham. LBSU will beat Fordham if they slow down Fordhamâs counterattack, they do a good job defending Fordhamâs excellent perimeter shooters, Wilson plays better than Fordhamâs goalie (Thomas Lercari), and Acosta has a very good game. Speaking of Acosta, in the last two years, LBSU has lost Brazilâs Rafael Real Vergara and Spainâs Robert Lopez Duart to the transfer portal. Iâm curious to see if Acosta stays at LBSU after this season.
Princeton (No. 5 seed). Princeton has an excellent coach (Dusty Litvak), one of the top 5 college players (Roko Pozaric), and perhaps the best goalie in the tournament (Kristof Kovacs). Litvak has done a great job at Princeton in spite of the many restrictions the Ivy League imposes on coaches and athletes. He will have two weeks to prepare for Stanford. Donât count Princeton out. At 5â11â, Kovacs has shown that you donât have to be tall to be a great college goalie. For most of his freshman year in 2023, Kovacs shared time with West Temkin. However, Litvak started Kovacs over Temkin in last yearâs NCAA tournament games against U.C. Irvine and UCLA. Pozaric should be a Cutino Award finalist. In 31 games this season, he has 73 goals (on 130 shots), 42 assists, 35 steals, 23 drawn ejections, and has won 87 of his 104 sprints. Vladimir Mitrovic is a talented player but his shot selection can leave something to be desired. Specifically, although he has taken more shots this year (119) and took more shots last year (143) than any Princeton player other than Pozaric, his shooting percentage (38.7 this year and 37.8 last year) suggests that he shoots too much. Mason Killion, Princetonâs best defensive player, has missed most of the season with an injury but will play against Stanford. Princeton can beat Stanford if their centers play respectably, Pozaric is the best player in the pool, Killion is close to 100 percent, Kovacs plays better than Temkin, and Mitrovic plays under control.
Stanford (No. 4 seed). Stanfordâs loss to USC in the MPSF semifinals cost them the No. 2 seed in the tournament. Instead of facing Cal Baptist in the first round, Stanford has to play a very good Princeton team. Instead of facing USC or the winner of the Fordham/LBSU game in the semifinals, Stanford (if it beats Princeton) will have to play UCLA. Thatâs a tough road to the finals. If Stanford beats Princeton, many things will have to go right for Stanford to beat UCLA in the semifinals. I donât think that will happen and it wonât be any easier next year. After this season, Stanford loses its top four scorers (Riley Pittman, Soren Jensen, Jackson Painter, and Dash McFarland) and underrated Ethan Parrish. Iâve heard reports that former UCLA player G.P. Di Martire will play for Stanford next year but that wonât make up for the loss of Pittman, Jensen, Painter, McFarland, and Parrish.
Fordham (No. 3 seed). A lot of the âtalkâ about the 2024 NCAA tournament is coming from enthusiastic Fordham fans and some members of the media who like a Cinderella story. Unlike Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson before the 1993 NFC championship game, Fordham coach Brian Bacharach is not giving his opponents bulletin-board material. Bacharach played for De La Salle High School and Cal, winning an NCAA championship and honorable mention All-American honors in 2006. Bacharach deserves credit for evaluating, recruiting, and retaining (at least so far) good international players. For better or worse, gone are the days when a Dante Dettamanti could win 8 NCAA championships without recruiting any notable international players. These days, not even Stanford (let alone an east coast school) can compete for an NCAA menâs championship without a few good international players. Bacharach also deserves credit for recognizing the potential of goalie Thomas Lercari (as did our colleague, Rbpolo) while Lercari was playing for Palos Verdes High School. I donât know whether Fordham was Lercariâs first choice. If not, several of Californiaâs top programs should have recruited him. Reminiscent, although not at the same level, of Jovan Vavicâs decision to pass on 3x Olympic goalie Merrill Moses while Moses was playing in USCâs backyard at Peninsula High School.
Itâs difficult to get a good read on Fordham because (1) most of their top players are international players and therefore many of us donât know as much about them as the top American players, and (2) Fordham played only a handful of games against quality opponents. An undefeated record against mostly weak opponents often doesnât mean much. El Segundo High School won the CIF Southern Section Division 2 Tournament in 2023, finishing that part of their season with a 32-0 record. The following week, El Segundo was the No. 7 seed in the Southern California Division 2 Regional Tournament and lost to No. 2 seed La Jolla by 6 goals in the first round. Harvard was 29-0 before it lost to Bucknell in the play-in game of the 2019 NCAA tournament. Bucknell lost its next game to USC by 6 goals and USC lost to Stanford in the semifinals. Fordham has better players than Harvardâs 2019 team. Lercari is not the only Fordham player who would start for one or more of the âBig 4â schools. Fordham has to play well to beat LBSU. If they beat LBSU, I think Fordham will give USC a good game in the semifinals but will come up short. USC has a significant advantage over Fordham at center. That advantage, which will be a factor in both ends of the pool, will be too much for Fordham to overcome.
USC (No. 2 seed). What a difference a week makes. USC had to win the MPSF tournament to qualify for the NCAA tournament. Not only did USC win the MPSF tournament, they drew the No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament and were placed in the weaker half of the draw. USC will beat Cal Baptist in the first round. Fordham or LBSU could keep it close in the semifinals but I donât see either one beating USC. Talent is usually the deciding factor in sports and USC has more talent than Fordham and LBSU. USC will probably face UCLA in the finals. USC beat UCLA in the MPSF finals in a must-win game for USC. However, UCLA didnât need to win the game because it had already clinched the No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. USC hasnât won an NCAA menâs championship since Marko Pintaric replaced Jovan Vavic in 2019. I donât think this will be the year.
UCLA (No. 1 seed). UCLA has the best player (Ryder Dodd), the best coach (Adam Wright), and the most depth in the tournament. Thatâs usually enough to win. Still, there are reasons for UCLA fans to be concerned. First, goalie Garret Griggs has been inconsistent and hasnât played as well as he did in 2023. It wonât surprise me if Wright starts redshirt freshman Nate Tauscher. Second, UCLAâs defense hasnât played up to its usual standards. UCLA won the NCAA championship in 2015 with a 32-0 record. UCLA allowed just 5.43 goals per game that year and allowed more than 9 goals only once (Cal scored 11 goals in an overtime game). UCLAâs 2015 team had two of the best defensive players in NCAA history: goalie Garrett Danner and center defender Anthony Daboub. This yearâs team doesnât have any defender close to that level. This yearâs team has allowed 9.12 goals per game and at least 10 goals in 8 games. If UCLA doesnât win the tournament, it wonât be because of its offense. In spite of my reservations about UCLAâs defense, Iâm still picking them to win the tournament. No college water polo player, not even Tony Azevedo or Chris Humbert, has played better in his first 25 games than Ryder Dodd. He will be the difference in the NCAA tournament.
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My first round predictions â Iâll be predicting the semis after the quarterfinal matches.
UCLA over Salem easily â Not much to say here. UCLA will be at a big advantage heading into the Saturday matchup simply off the rest factor. Prediction: 22â8
Princeton over Stanford by 2 â I think this will be a low-scoring game and a dogfight for 32 minutes. What many people fail to realize is that Princeton is far more experienced in the NCAA tournament than Stanford. I think Princeton has arguably the two best players in the water in Pozaric and Mitrovic and the better goalie. While I think Jeff is making a fair point, Mitrovic has been a game-changer in the past for Princeton in their biggest games. Prediction: 10â8
Fordham over LBSU by 3 â If LBSU wants to win this game, I believe they need to convert over 50 percent of their 6x5. Fordham is the better team, but they give up a lot of exclusions. I wasnât able to find stats for the Princeton Fordham, but going off the Fosh Stats for their games against Pacific, UCSB, SJST, UCSD, and Cal Baptist, here are each teamâs 6x5 splits. Pacific 6/13, SJSU 3/9, UCSB 3/17, UCSD 3/21, CBU 5/14. Fordham gives up a lot of man-up advantages which I believe will cost them against USC. If LBSU wins this game, itâll be because of their 6x5. I believe itâll be a close high scoring first half with Fordham winning 16â13.
USC by 6 over CBU: I believe that CBU has some great players, including some great perimeter shooters. However, USC has way too much talent and is playing their best water polo of the year. Herzer is undoubtedly a top-three goalie in the tournament and I see him having a great first-round game. Prediction: 14â8 USC
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UCLA over Salem by a lot
Stanford over Princeton by 2
USC over CBU by 4
Fordham over LBSU by 2
UCLA over Stanford by 1
USC over Fordham by 3
UCLA over USC by 1
I agree with what jeff and some others have said. I ranked UCLA #1 at the beginning of the season and still feel the same. They have the best player in Ryder Dodd and the best coach in Adam Wright. They are also the deepest team. Ryder Dodd is going to need to have to an outstanding tournament and Wright will have to figure out the best way to use their depth. Whether it be Chase Dodd, Liechty, Carsalade, Kenney, Sherlock, Larsen etc., UCLA will need a couple of their other shooters to step and keep opposing defenses honest. Wright loves to use his centers, so they will need to be productive with all of the touches that they will get. As long as whichever goalie they use has a decent tournament, I think that they will find a way to win it all.
I had Stanford at #2 to start the season and still feel that their starting team is probably as good as anyoneâs, but they really have a tough road to a Championship. I just do not see them putting together three straight stellar performances against three very good teams in three days, but they definitely have the potential to do it.
I had Princeton as my #5 team going into the season and still feel about the same about them. I think that they will give Stanford a great game, but they just do not have enough players to compliment Pozaric and Mitrovic.
I slightly underestimated USC and put them at #4 to start the year. USC really came through when they needed to and were rewarded with the easiest path to the Finals. They really do not seem to have a glaring weakness and have shown that they can beat anyone when they are playing well as a team.
I have not seen Fordham play much this year, so I am probably a bit naive, but I just do not think that they have enough big games under their belts to beat Long Beach and USC in back to back games.
As usual, it will be fun to see how wrong I am.
Iâll take a shot at this.
Rd 1
UCLA over Salem by 15+
Stanford over Princeton by 5 or less
USC over CBU by 10+
LBSU over Fordham by 1 in OT.
Semis
UCLA over Stanford by 3
USC over LBSU by 7+
Final
UCLA over USC by 3+
I think that what is essentially a bye in round 1 for ucla is a pretty big advantage. I donât think ucla has the best coach, but they do have the most prepared coach. They can game plan for the semifinal and have a well rested team for that game. I also think ucla has the best player and best depth by a large margin. Hard to see them not winning this year.
Semis
Ucla over stanford by 5
Usc over Fordham by 2
Finals
Ucla over usc by 4
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Stanford-Princeton will be a dogfight. Kovacs might be best goalie this year and Stanford will struggle to score from the outside. To win, Stanford will have to get the ball into set and score on their man ups. Iâd also like to see Dash get more minutes at center â Gheorgheâs defense has improved this year but itâs still a liability â not sure why Dash doesnât get more minutes. Princeton has the better shooters but its weakness at center and lack of depth compared to Stanford will be the difference. That said, if Princetonâs shooters rattle Temkin early, Princeton wins. Stanford by 1 but having this type of game in the quarters is just brutal
UCLA has a massive question mark at goalie but that wonât be a problem against Stanford (Princeton is a worse match up for UCLA) because Stanford lacks elite shooters. A year ago, I would have said Painter was at that level, but he hasnât had that type of year. Last time Stanford and UCLA met, it wasnât close. To be in this game, Jensen, Pitman, and Painter will need to step up their shooting. The one X factor for Stanford is Botond who had some nice shots at MPSF. But got to go with UCLA, especially because it will be rested after the Salem game. UCLA by 3.
USC over Fordham. This game will be close, but SC will be rested and they looked so good at MPSF that itâs hard to pick against them. USC by 2.
USC over UCLA. SC is clicking at the right time.
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i also believe if it is USC vs UCLA that USC has an edge. Few players like Cranz playing a fifth year, been at finals a few times now might add to their dynamic as well as clicking at the right time, I think it will come down to the wire regardless of UCLA mixed talent and depth.
You donât think UCLA also has super talented 5th year guys who have also played in finals?
I think the only real question mark for UCLA is in the cage.
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you are right, though I credit the fifth years leading the energy of the USC team, where UCLA is led by young and older players. USC fifth years are out for blood, who knows if they have enough to take on UCLA again. Will be fun to watch.
Fair enough, but I think everyone is putting way too much weight onto USCâs MPSF win. With the number one seed and an at large bid locked up, I guarantee you Wright had UCLA grinding all the way up to, and probably even through, the MPSF tournament. His goal is to peak at NCAAâs, not MPSF.
Remember, USC peaked at MPSF last year too and where did that leave them? Dumped out in the semis by a Vallera-less Cal team.
When is the last time the MPSF winner has even won NCAAâs? Not sure itâs much of a metric for predicting a National Title winner, especially if that MPSF winner has been wildly inconsistent all season.
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UCLA has been highly regarded as the #1 team the last 3 years and have been unable to win a title. They lost to Cal in 2021 in the semis, got destroyed by USC in the 2022 semis and lost last year in the title game (was not a very close game)
UCLA is great this year but letâs face it, have not gotten stellar play from Larsen, Griggs, or Kenney who were huge last year.
I totally get how UCLAâs field players might not have been 100% for MPSF, but itâs hard to get past their goalie play. Cal could phone it for MPSF because it had a future Olympian in cage.
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WaterPolo, UCLA may have been ranked #1 the last 3 years, but I do not remember them being the favorite to win the NCAA Championship. Cal was certainly the favorite the last two years, no matter how they played in the regular season and MPSF Tournament.
Exactly. To say that UCLA was âhighly regarded as the #1 teamâ or the favorite to win the title in the last three years is severe revisionist history. In 2021, predictions were pretty evenly split between Cal, USC, and UCLA, with most informed experts picking Cal or USC. In 2022, most observers picked Cal to repeat, with a few Trojan fans picking USC to prevail. And, to be fair, the final game in 2022 came down to the wire (as it also did in 2021). In 2023, with the best player 3 years running in Papa, the best goalie in Weinberg, and the best shooters in Casabella and Vallera, the only question about Cal repeating was whether Papa would be healthy. Turns out he was - and title number 3 went to Cal!
In all three years, the difference came down to Cal having the best player in the pool and the best goalie. This year, UCLA clearly has the best player in Ryder Dodd. But, as I said in a previous post, the only question mark for UCLA is in the cage. I suspect Griggs wil be on a short leash this weekend and Tauscher will be in quickly if things get bumpy.
UCLA over Salem - nothing else to say
Stanford over Princeton - Home pool advantage
USC over CBU - five goal win, SC takes care of business so they can rest up
LBS over Fordham - But do we really know what LBS team will show up.
UCLA over Stanford - Adam has had two weeks to prepare for Stanford, Stanford has had to work on both Princeton and UCLA.
USC over LBS - The bright lights of the tourney are a little too much for LBS.
UCLA over USC - UCLA didnât peak for MPSF, USC did. UCLA has been pointing to Sunday all year and in the end their defense carries them and makes life easy for Griggs as they funnel shots to him where he can get in the way.
Why only upset is the following:
If LBSU beats Fordham then USC will make finals
If Fordham beats LBSU then Fordham will upset USC and make finals
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have to disagree with LBSU over Fordham. Love LBSU and theyâre a quality team that is much better than their record says they are but thereâs a reason Fordham is number 3. Depth all around that team combined with guys who can score when they want where they want. Toth and Provenziani are two of the best freshman in college period and are main reasons why this Fordham team shows out. Bacharach also far better tactically on the man up than LBSU.
The argument against is that they havenât had a game really since Oct 25 vs UOP. That is a long time. Perhaps recency bias but peaking at the right time in competition matters.
Since Oct 18 LB competitive games:
UCSD twice
UCSB
UCI twice
UOP
The argument for is that Fordham has beaten UCSD, UBSB, and UOP by 2+ goal margins earlier in the year.
Canât wait to watch.
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The margin in the UOP game is a bit of a stretch, watched the game, (crappy live stream to be honest). UOP went all or nothing and came up short. Empty net goals at the end of the game donât show how close the game was. Long Beach lost to UCSB in overtime a few weeks ago and then dominated them in the tourney. Finishing the season on the rise is the name of the game, it will be a close one.