Glad to see that Cal’s Nikolaos Papanikolaou made the Greek Olympic team.
Papanikolaou Headed To First Olympic Games - California Golden Bears Athletics (calbears.com)
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What are everyone’s thoughts on this 2024 team’s chances of making out of the group stage? Who needs to step up in those big vs. Montengro & vs. Croatia games?!
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I think it’s pretty clear that the Romania and Montenegro games are must win contests. Any other win in the group stage is going to be very useful when it comes to the crossovers, but it is still hard to see a path to the medal rounds for this men’s group without getting some breaks to go their way.
That being said, I would really think that a team that is built around Hallock needs to have him really make a consistent impact every game and a lot of that is staying in the pool (something that has been somewhat an issue at the major tournaments recently).
We will need big games from some combination of Daube, Cupido, Bowen and Irving to make the most of this Games as well. In the pre-Olympic friendlies, I was really impressed with Hooper as well and hope he can show out this Games. Also, if we can’t keep Woodhead out of foul trouble in the major games we may have some issues in this tournament.
Defensively, it will be interesting to see who gets the goalkeeping nod and in what contests. I think there are arguments for both keepers for very different reasons. As I’ve written about before, my preference is Weinberg. I think he provides an energy and electricity in the cage that Holland doesn’t and he is the better penalty stopper. That being said, Holland looked very on form in the friendlies and I’m not going to be upset if he’s the choice.
Ultimately, I think it remains to be seen if this group as constructed can find consistent scoring when they need it. I think they are one of the better defensive teams in the world, but they seem to sometimes struggle to score for stretches of games. When they do score, it often comes in bunches interspersed with (what can feel like) long strings of empty possessions. Usually, these goal scoring spurts come early in a game to take a lead that we struggle to hold onto or late in the game as the team tries to comeback from being down a few goals.
One last note (and I think I sound like a broken record to some people at this point), I still think it remains to be seen if we can win a game consistently if it goes to penalties. There has certainly been some improvement in this area since I first pointed it out at the World Cup a year ago, but the shootouts with the Montenegrins and Spaniards in the recent games still makes me feel that this is a concern.
Still, I think this is a better team than we have sent to past Olympics just based on experience and player development. Likewise, I just really like a lot of the players on this team on a personal level regardless of how I feel about the coaching. I really hope they can put something together and make a medal run. I wish them the best of luck at the Olympics and can’t wait to watch their performance. 10 days to go!
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@breckweiny thanks for the breakdown, I agree that our best player in Hallock needs to be performing at his peak, drawing the attention to open up our big arms such as Daube, Bowen, and Cupido (as you mentioned).
You mention that even with arguably our best team since the 2008 Beijing Olympics, you see a hard path forward. My question to you (and everyone) is what could the team have done differently?? Was the difficult path decided when the drawings happened?
What are your thought’s on Dejan? at least to me, I can’t tell if he’s gotten lucky with getting incredible players or has he actually developed players (we will see with the Dodd brothers)
I second your feelings about personally liking a lot of these players, I feel as if USA Water Polo did a good job bringing back/supporting players like Cupido, Hooper, and Holland but with all these young players, they must be thinking about the future; family, non-athletic life, not everyone will be able to play for a top, top club like Pro Recco. Our timeline might be a lot narrower then the previous Olympians such as Azevedo, Smith, Moses.
I hope that a majority of this team can come back one more year and help potential, future Olympians (Peter C, Ben F, one or both of the Ohl brothers). I know I am missing a lot more just wanted to throw those three out there!
I will start out by praising Dejan for what I think he has done. A big reason the US has struggled in the past has to do with the turnover of players from one games to the next. We were perennially fielding a “young” team and that was an issue. The reason this team is as competitive as it is and has the Olympic experience it does is largely due to him working to connect American players with opportunities to play professionally in Europe. I think this has greatly extended the national team careers of our players and kept them playing longer than in the past.
Likewise, while I personally don’t like the ODP system I know a lot of people see it as a reason we have developed and identified players that are playing in this games; most of the players on this squad were identified through and came up in ODP. I still say their development was largely the product of American college, high school and club coaches, but I want to acknowledge his role in growing ODP.
That being said, I don’t think that Dejan has done as much work as he could while drawing the salary he does and I don’t think our staff lead by him is really on the cutting edge of tactics and strategy or has done much to stay abreast or ahead of other teams as regards rule changes. It seems to me that we are playing a version of water polo that is slightly behind what the best European teams are doing and really just tries to emulate what has been done by others.
And that brings us to the real issue, something that is not going to change. If you look at the roster of the top teams in the world (Spain, Italy, Hungary, Greece) 5-7 of the players selected for the national team play for the same domestic club. They are playing together against top competition year round in addition to having an easier time connecting for national team training as well. Nothing the US does can come close to that. Our players are geographically distributed all over Europe and then have to come back to the States to train with the national team. That makes it difficult to build any type of continuity in training. And I think you see it when we play. Other teams are just better prepared because they are closer and more connected as a team.
What more could have been done with this group? Probably not much. But that speaks to what the peak of the men’s team can be on the Olympic level to me. We can compete for a medal as a dark horse contender; we can make a run. But we aren’t going to perennially be a top team in the world because we lack a domestic league and the opportunity for our players (national team and otherwise) to continue to develop domestically after college. Personally, I don’t think that will change (and it’s about to impact our women’s team too imo).
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Well, our women’s team has a much a better chance to win a medal than the men’s team does. It will be a lot of fun watching a mix of former Olympians and newcomers see if they continue the US women’s long and nearly unbroken string of international success. This is almost certainly the last Olympics for Ashleigh Johnson, who looks to have secured the starting spot in goal. (Johnson started all four of the women’s tune-up friendlies.) Longan in no slouch, but Johnson is a once in generation star goalie.
They are clearly the team to beat–and that’s possible, as Hungary just showed in their last tune-up. Will be interesting to watch. I’m not going to out on a limb to predict they will medal again, and I’d certainly give them a better than even chance to win gold. Pretty hard to raise any concerns with Krikorian’s tenure as their coach–a class act doing a great job.
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I think that’s a pretty good assessment. I think that overall Dejan has been a plus, and I agree with you on the challenges he faces. I do see some consistent weaknesses with Dejan-coached teams–which may not be entirely his fault. (1) Our teams are really prone to both offensive droughts and strings of defensive failures–sometimes both at once–that waste what is otherwise generally strong play. We can play with any team in the world, but the best teams are going to win most of the time if they can take advantage of US lapses, which seem all too frequent. (2) We are easy to goad into stupid retaliation fouls that are almost always the ones that referees see and result in red cards or game exclusions for brutality. We are not deep enough to recover when we lose one of our starters, so this hurts us badly when we get into physical games.
Both of these factors have been going on long enough that they can no longer be attributed to young players, and it’s some of our most experienced and productive players who seem most prone to getting caught making dumb physical fouls. In a game where the referees are allowing a high level of physical play, a good strategy is to beat the snot out of our best players and hope they do something that sends them out of the pool. Deeper teams than us can afford to risk losing one of their players for the chance to take out one of ours.
On a brighter note, it’s going to be interesting to see how the two Dodds have grown with more international experience.
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Just to add that any assessment of Dejan’s performance needs to think about who would have been the alternative. I’m not sure any of the current or past college coaches I’ve seen championed as replacements would have taken the job–or done any better if they had. Ditto for whether other international coaches with a record of success would have come here for it.
I agree with you that this group of US women are a medal favorite at this Games, but the gap that existed between them and the other teams is smaller than ever and closing rapidly. And I’d suggest it’s for the same reason as the men’s side: European women are increasingly playing year round professional or semi professional water polo.
I have heard that there is some disconnect between the older players on that team and the younger generation coming up but I don’t know the veracity of that. However, I am curious if AK will continue to coach the women after this Olympics and what the team looks like moving forward. I see this as the final Olympics for a lot of the athletes on that squad and I’m not sure if the next group will continue to have the same success (which is really understandable considering the unprecedented run they have had).
I hope our women’s team can make it to the gold again, because I think they are great athletes and hard workers and would love to see them reach that milestone. But, just like on the men’s side and as the tune up games the women played show, in a one off game there are teams that can challenge and beat this women’s team.
100%. That’s why I cited the recent loss to Hungary–at a site where the crowd and probably the officials would have favored the US. (Not due to bias, but just due to the women probably knowing the tendencies of the officials on that game better than the Hungarians.) I think the US medaling is a good bet, and they remain the favorite for the gold, but they could also drop a game or two in group play, get a tough draw in the crossover or the quarters, and get knocked out. Parity is coming–and there are lots of teams out there who could to our women what we hope our men might do to the top seeds.
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This wasn’t publicized much, with no press release from USA Water Polo except a small blurb and a link on the Facebook page, but the Men’s Team defeated Croatia 13-11 in a friendly on the 19th.
Here’s a link to the replay on YouTube:
Thanks for the post and super weird USAWP is not on top of these things.
It’s never clear what these friendly matches close to major tournaments mean. I watched some of that video–I did not think the US played all that well, especially in the first half. Nice teaser for the upcoming games, though!
Here are my predictions, often wrong, for the women’s tournament:
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United States. The United States is seeking its fourth consecutive gold medal. It won’t be easy without the Fischer sisters, great centers, and great center defenders. Still, I think the United States will win again by beating Hungary in a very close contest in the gold medal game. Goalie Ashleigh Johnson, the greatest female player of all time, will be the MVP of the tournament. Jewel Roemer will be the best newcomer in the tournament. Moms and Dads: If you want your daughters to maximize their potential, watch as many of Roemer’s games at the Olympics and Stanford as you can. At no more than 5’7", Roemer’s water polo IQ is off the charts.
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Hungary. Hungary pushed the United States around in the last game the two teams played in the United States earlier this summer. The United States has to find a way to match Hungary’s physical play,
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Netherlands
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Spain
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Italy
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Greece
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Australia
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Canada
For the women, I give the edge to the United States also, but there are several teams that can beat them, most notably Hungary, the Netherlands and Spain. I even think that Australia can give them a competitive game on the right day. IMHO, the US has the best goalie in the world and the best all-around field player in Steffens. Musselman is as good of a shooter as there is and does exactly what Kirkorian needs her to do. I think that she has a good chance at repeating as the MVP of the tournament. I think Fattal is extremely underrated and can hold her own against anyone.
I will differ from jeff and go with another 5’7" player as the Best Newcomer in Ryann Neushul. Roemer is a great player and has great fundamentals, but I put Neushul on another level in terms of talent. She was a Cutino Finalist in 2023 and I think that she will win it in 2024. She really makes things happen and will have to play a big role this year for the US to win. She is a dynamic player who make a lot of stuff happen on offense and will asked to guard 2 meters on defence as well.
As jeff mentioned, the loss of the Fischer girls really hurts them at center and 2 meter defender. I think that Adam will find girls to defend, but not having a great center like Craig, Dries, Seidemann and A. Fischer in the past is going to put a lot of pressure on their attackers to make things happen, but I am sure that Adam has a great gameplan.
Really hoping for a 4-peat!
The 2024 men’s Olympic water polo tournament is comprised of two groups of six teams:
Group A
Croatia
Greece
Italy
Montenegro
Romania
United States
Group B
Australia
France
Hungary
Japan
Serbia
Spain
The men’s tournament is wide open with as many as six teams capable of winning the gold medal. To make it to the quarterfinals, I think the United States has to finish in the top three in Group A. On paper, Group A is the tougher group. Here are my predictions:
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Italy. Italy finished 7th in the Tokyo Olympics and 2nd in the 2022 and 2024 World Championships. Among others, Italy is led by 3x Olympians Francesca Di Fulvio and Marco Del Lungo. Del Lungo was named the best goalie in the 2024 World Championships. Di Fulvio has been one of the best players in the world for many years. He was named the MVP in the 2024 World Championships.
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Croatia. Croatia finished 5th in Tokyo. They are a trendy pick to win the gold medal because they won the 2024 World Championships. Marko Bijac, a 3x Olympian, was named the best goalie in the 2016 Olympics and is still one of the best goalies in the world. Two of Croatia’s top players, Luka Loncar and Maro Jokovic, retired after the Tokyo Olympics. However, they have returned to the team and will play in Paris. Loncar played in the 2024 World Championships.
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Spain. Spain finished 4th in Tokyo, won the 2022 World Championships, and finished 3rd in the 2023 and 2024 World Championships. Felipe Perrone, 38, will be playing in his 5th Olympics (4 for Spain and 1 for Brazil). He will be remembered as one of the greatest water polo players of all time. Unai Aguirre, 22, was Spain’s second goalie in the 2021 Olympics. He became the starting goalie after Daniel Lopez Pinedo retired in 2022. Aguirre was named the most valuable goalkeeper in the 2022 World Championships.
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United States. Dejan Udovicic has his supporters and his detractors. His track record speaks for itself. During Udovicic’s 14 years as the head coach of the senior national team, the United States finished 10th in the 2016 Olympics, 6th in the 2021 Olympics, 9th in the 2013 World Championships, 7th in the 2015 World Championships, 13th in the 2017 World Championships, 9th in the 2019 World Championships, 6th in the 2022 World Championships, 7th in the 2023 World Championships, and 9th in the 2024 World Championships. When you have time, compare Udovicic’s record to Monte Nitzkowski’s record as the head coach of the men’s senior national team. If the United States receives better than average goaltending from Drew Holland and/or Adrian Weinberg, I think the United States will finish third in Group A, win its quarterfinal game, and finish fourth.
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Greece. Greece finished 2nd in the Tokyo Olympics, third in the 2022 World Championships, and second in the 2023 World Championships. Greece lost in the quarterfinals in the 2024 World Championships. Greece features two players, Kostas Genidounias and Nikolaos Papanikolaou, who played college water polo in the United States. Genidounias, 31, is a 3x Olympian. He led USC to NCAA championships in 2011, 2012, and 2013 and won the Cutino Award in 2014. Papanikolaou, 23, led Cal to NCAA championships in 2021, 2022, and 2023 and is a 3x Cutino Award winner.
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Hungary. Hungary finished 3rd in the Tokyo Olympics, won the 2023 World Championships, and finished 7th in the 2022 and 2024 World Championships. Denes Varga, 37, will be playing in his 5th Olympics.
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Serbia. Serbia won the gold medals in the 2016 and 2021 Olympics and finished 6th in the 2024 World Championships. Serbia has a younger team and a new coach. Among others, Serbia is led by Dusan Mandic, a 4x Olympian. He returned to the Serbian national team earlier this year.
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France. France did not qualify for the Tokyo Olympics. France finished 4th in the 2024 World Championships, the best finish in a water polo World Championships in France’s history. France is led by Thomas Vernoux, 22. Vernoux, a center/attacker, is already one of the best players in the world. He was the leading scorer in the 2024 World Championships. Tony Azevedo has said that Vernoux could “change the sport” with his talent.
Nice game by US women–15-6 over Greece. (Not that you could tell by checking the USA WP website or FB page, but after searching I did find a game result on Twitter. USAWP with its usual social media savvy.) I only watched the last 3 quarters, but from what I saw, the game was nowhere near as close as score suggests. It sure would be nice if USA WP could do even a half decent job of promoting these games. For the record, I think Public Enemy was one of the great musical acts in US history–Fight the Power deserves its #2 ranking from Rolling Stone among the greatest songs of all time. But the last times I remember Flavor Flav making the news were when Public Enemy kicked him out of the band and some drunk driving arrests about a decade ago. I also think he was on a reality TV show–the ultimate sign of “has-been” on a resume. For what USA WP is paying Flavor Flav to be the hype man at the games, could they have afforded a couple of media savvy young go-getters to provide creative and timely web and social media content around these games? Just links from the website to the very good results, game summaries, and score sheets available via the Olympics.com website would be helpful. (Sorry, rant over.)
The US women looked fantastic today against a good Greek team. Their defense was solid for the majority of the game until a few lapses after the game was already in hand. I agree with Mepolo, the game was not as close as the 15-6 score.
The team’s 7 newcomers really stepped up. Flynn’s looked fantastic today and her shot is really something else. Prentice and Sekulik dominated at 2M today. They scored 4 goals between them and probably drew close to 10 exlusions. If they keep on playing like that, the US is going to be very difficult to defeat. Great game ladies. Let’s keep it going.
“For what USA WP is paying Flavor Flav to be the hype man at the games…”
It’s the other way around. Flavor Flav is making a substantial contribution to the women’s water polo team.
Predictions for USA vs Italy tommorow?
I think Italy is the toughest match for U.S in group A but I do think our best bet would be to beat them early. I hope to see Weinberg start as he has been responsible for our big wins the last couple years.
Go USA!